Sweden's government implements the most restrictive migration policy in ages

The social democratic and Green party government coalition in Sweden made a U-turn on migration policy last week, introducing the most restrictive such in at least my lifetime. As more and more countries in the EU moves towards closing their borders, Sweden's remained relatively open and more than 140 000 refugees have gone there to seek asylum this year. That is just under twice as many as last year. Municipalities and the National Migration Board have argued that they are overwhelmed by the numbers, with overworked staff. The government argues that the new policy is set in place to:

• Reduce the number of claimants so that the administrations gain some breathing room,
• Send a signal to other EU-countries that it's time for them to step up to the plate.

Let's assess that. The proposal is available here (in Swedish).

The proposed changes to migration policy

Temporary residency permits for every asylum seeker except quota refugees

This is a suggestion that will not necessarily impact the number of people seeking asylum in Sweden. However, it will make integration and settlement harder. The majority of asylum seekers will no longer be able to settle and build a future for themselves. To successfully settle, newcomers need to build economic, social and cultural capital in the new country. A person who loses residency will have to start that process all over again, destroying much of the assets built over the years. Moreover, the Migration Board will have to assess each asylum claimant twice, once to approve the temporary residence permit, and then a second time when it expires to see if the claimant can get permanent residency. That actually increases the administrative burden on the Migration Board over the long term.

Limit the right to family reunification for people with temporary residency

See above. It also means that newcomers have to apply as asylum seekers from scratch, which means that they will not be able to build on the economic, social and cultural capital that family members who arrived earlier might have created. Also, this will mean that people who could have been given expedient approval through family reunification will have to go through the asylum approval process, so this could potentially actually make processing times even longer.

Raised demands on families to support family class immigrants

Canada has demands like these already instituted. It is a barrier for immigrants, to be sure. Not sure how it will affect processing times, though. Also, this type of criterion does not necessarily mean decreasing the inflow of migrants. The result will depend greatly on community capacity.

A category of refugee grounds is replaced by a more restrictive one

This is where the Swedish government essentially says that Sweden will only accept quota refugees from now on. That is as close to closing the border that the Swedish government can push policy without violating important EU treaties and UN commitments.

Moreover

In addition to the detrimental effects mentioned above, the police are now conducting ID checks to all travelers using collective means of travel (trains, buses, planes, ships) arriving in Sweden. Instead of having police devoted to pursuing suspects of crime that actually hurt Swedish citizens, they are patrolling the borders to check the IDs of travellers, meaning that they need more resources, not less, to fulfill their core tasks.

Conclusions

I don't think anything good can come of this. The impact on asylum seeker inflow is dubious. It is unlikely to encourage any other European countries to open their doors more. On the contrary, so far Denmark and Norway seem to be following suit. The measures will increase public expenditures, not lower them, and also make integration for those who do receive permanent residency much harder. It will also close one more possible safe haven for refugees, even as they continue to die in the Mediterranean because of the Fortress Europe border policy. Finally, it will impact Swedish domestic policies negatively. At the moment, there are only two parties opposing the measures outright, the increasingly libertarian Centre Party and the radical Left Party. It's a far cry from the political consensus of September, when just about all parties except the Sweden Democrats still spoke warmly about international solidarity and a generous refugee policy.


Just today, the Swedish news agencies are reporting that since the implementation of the new border restrictions, refugee smuggling is on the rise, and the first case of refugees crossing the Baltic in a rubber dingy has been reported. I am deeply concerned and fear that we might see a development where refugees risk their lives, and lose them, trying to reach Sweden. That is what often happens when a state restricts border crossing.